October 14, 2025 - Ceasefire Virginia Smashes Expectations According to New VCU Report

Ceasefire Virginia Smashes Expectations According to New VCU Report

VCU Center for Public Policy Finds Ceasefire Virginia Successful

Ceasefire Cities Responsible for 64% of Reduction in Murder Rate; 40% Reduction in Violent Crime

Ceasefire Announces New SAUSA for Fairfax County, Northern Virginia

RICHMOND, Va. — Attorney General Jason Miyares announced the three-year anniversary of Ceasefire Virginia with the publication of a new preliminary report from the Virginia Commonwealth University Center for Public Policy, which highlights the continued performance of the program with results far outpacing previously set benchmarks for success.

The VCU Center for Public Policy’s preliminary report determines that Ceasefire Virginia is meeting and well exceeding all four benchmarks for success, including a 31.9% drop in the murder rate by the end of 2024 against an expectation of a 10% drop. These findings within the VCU preliminary report follow upon Virginia’s top-tier ranking combating the fentanyl crisis, with a 39.53% drop in overdose deaths compared to last year. 

The preliminary recommendations find that Ceasefire Virginia has produced a “net positive return” and recommends continuing the program with an emphasis on community safety, training and funding for law enforcement, and renewed efforts to recruit and retain existing professionals.

Moreover, the VCU Ceasefire Report shows that public confidence in local law enforcement is rapidly being restored inside Ceasefire localities, as the new tools, relationships, and technologies employed remain popular. 

“Promises made and promises kept,” said Attorney General Jason Miyares. “Not only does this report reinforce the fact Ceasefire Virginia continues to work, we are seeing in real time how Ceasefire Virginia is restoring public confidence in our law enforcement professionals who put their lives on the line every day to keep our families safe from violent repeat offenders. 

“Every investment in public safety is an investment made in our families, our schools, and our communities. Virginians have painfully learned the cost of a criminals first and victims last mindset. As attorney general, I promised Virginians we would not go back to four years of violence, and I am pleased to report that our success is demonstrable, proven, and doing what we promised we would do — keep Virginia families safe.” 

In conjunction with this report, Ceasefire Virginia is announcing that a new special assistant prosecutor will be assigned in northern Virginia to help bring Ceasefire Virginia’s success to begin actively prosecuting violent criminals and repeat offenders. Presently, Ceasefire Virginia funds seven cross-designated Special Assistant U.S. Attorneys (SAUSAs) who are instrumental in securing justice, with 256 federal cases and 26 state cases indicted so far. At least 60 investigations remain ongoing.

Some of the key highlights of the preliminary report include:

• Ceasefire Virginia success rates continue to outpace statewide numbers. 64% of the reduction in the murder rate and 40% of the overall violent crime rate from 2023-2024 can be attributed to Ceasefire localities. 61% of the reduction of the murder rate from 2021 through 2024 can be attributed to Ceasefire localities.
• From 2023-2024, the murder rate declined by 21.22% across Virginia over a two-year period. According to the Virginia Cost of Crime Calculator, this reduction in the number of homicides (115) is estimated to have saved the Commonwealth $1,202,234,907.
• From 2022-2024, the murder rate declined by 33.49% across Virginia over a three-year period. According to the Virginia Cost of Crime Calculator, this reduction in the number of homicides (215) is estimated to have saved the Commonwealth $2,247,656,565.
• From 2023-2024, all violent crime is down 13% across Virginia over a two-year period. This includes homicides, aggravated assaults, and robberies with a firearm. Ceasefire localities are responsible for 40% of the reduced violent crime rate.
• Ceasefire Virginia enjoys a 95% conviction rate in federal indictments. Special Assistant U.S. Attorneys secured a 99% conviction rate.
• 76% of residents in Ceasefire localities believe local law enforcement officers make their communities safer. Citizens also believe law enforcement treats them fairly (65%) with respect (71%) and approve of the job they perform (72%).
• Ceasefire Virginia's public information campaign and media investments enjoyed a stronger than expected return on investment (ROI) to the Virginia taxpayer. Each dollar spent saved $3.60 in deterrence.
• Automated License Plate Readers (ALPRs) are widely praised by Virginia law enforcement, with 57% of Virginians viewing their use in tackling criminal activity positively and a 127% return on investment to Virginia taxpayers presently, with an estimated 383% potential return on investment under certain scenarios.
• Just a 1% reduction in crime would result in $89.3 million in cost savings to Virginia families. Presently, crime costs the average Virginia household $2,626 in associated costs and social impact. Despite Ceasefire Virginia's efforts, the total loss in 2024 alone was $8.9 billion. Richmond, Norfolk, and Portsmouth combined are impacted by over $1.5 billion in losses. Petersburg, Portsmouth, and Hampton shoulder the greatest per capita impact.

The VCU Center for Public Policy will issue the full and final report in December 2025 which will include a more robust analysis of Ceasefire Virginia’s media campaign, a broader look at the efficacy of ALPRs in select Ceasefire localities, an expanded violent crime trend analysis, along with an in-depth analysis of the law enforcement focus group.

The VCU Ceasefire Preliminary Report can be downloaded by clicking HERE.

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